WEST LAFAYETTE, IN – OCTOBER 20: Rondale Moore #4 of the Purdue Boilermakers runs the ball and tries to fight off Jahsen Wint #23 of the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ross-Ade Stadium on October 20, 2018 in West Lafayette, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)Saturday, one week after scoring 49 points on Big Ten heavyweight Ohio State, Purdue struggled to move the ball against Michigan State. The Boilermakers managed just one touchdown in the affair, and lost 23-13. They looked like a far different team than they did a week ago.The result was somewhat predictable – middle-of-the-pack teams that take down national title contenders often have a tough time maintaining that momentum the next week. But Purdue’s loss was another reason for Ohio State fans to roll their eyes. They’ve seen this before – pretty much all season.In fact, seven of the eight teams that played Ohio State this season have gone on to lose to their next FBS opponent.Eleven Warriors has the data. The only team to win its next game against an FBS team was Tulane. Even Penn State lost – to Michigan State.Following Purdue’s loss on Saturday, Ohio State’s opponents this season are now 1-7 in their next games against Football Bowl Subdivision teams after playing the Buckeyes. https://t.co/3TrWkc3nd3— Eleven Warriors (@11W) October 27, 2018Last year, Iowa, in similar fashion, shocked Ohio State mid-season. The Hawkeyes were then blown out by Wisconsin a week later.To be clear, none of this is shocking. Teams get up to play the Ohio States of the world. But it’s still some strong data.After a bye week, Ohio State gets Nebraska next Saturday. The Buckeyes will be heavy favorites.
ANN ARBOR, MI – NOVEMBER 25: Urban Meyer head coach of the Ohio State Buckeyes and Jim Harbaugh head coach of the Michigan Wolverines shake hands after the game. Ohio State won 31 to 20 on November 25, 2017 at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)Ohio State and Michigan will square off on Saturday, and the winner will take the Big Ten East and earn a spot in the league’s title game next week against Northwestern. A College Football Playoff spot could be on the line too – maybe.Michigan currently holds the No. 4 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings, and many believe that if the Wolverines win out, they’ll stay there. But FiveThirtyEight’s playoff predictor model doesn’t see it that way.In fact, FiveThirtyEight projects that both the Wolverines and Buckeyes would need help – even if they won out.If Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Michigan win out, the Wolverines have the lowest odds of getting in. Ditto if you replace Michigan with Ohio State.FiveThirtyEight isn’t affiliated with selection committee, but their model has been pretty accurate in the past.Essentially, it’s predicting that even if Michigan wins out, Oklahoma will pass it in the rankings. The Sooners will play Texas in the Big 12 title game next week.If that did happen, you could expect Michigan fans to riot. There’s no way they think that a 12-1 Wolverines squad that won the Big Ten and knocked off Ohio State should be left out.It’s going to be an interesting two weeks.